Monday, August 1, 2022

paired virtue, mutual dependency

  - to make a case that most concept has some thing like an opposite twin; 
    -- maybe the twin is not opposite; maybe that each concept has a twin; 
 - to make a case for seeing a concept (idea, value, virtue, metric) as a spectrum; 
 - to make a case for seeing a concept to be like a balancing scale
 - to make a case for understanding a concept to have multiple aspects (parts), with some aspects being fixed (static, unchanging), and some aspects being dynamic (organic, with ebb and flow, life cycle)
    -- this true for a concept that represent a system 
       --- this would be less true to not true for fundamental or basic concept 
    -- by fixed, static, unchanging, we do not mean absolute, fixed, unchanging, like a constant; it is a relative fixed point, for reference, and because it is a reference point, we want it to be relatively stable; more importantly, the reference material (baseline, measurement) should be stable enough over a duration (period), in a given environment (temperature, pressure, humidity, gravitational force, corrosion resistance, decay); for example, geological stability; humidity and temperature wise, an underground cave is relatively stable;    
    -- by dynamic, we mean changing relative to the rest of the environment; for example, the wind is dynamic; the rain is dynamic; the river is dynamic; sunshine is dynamic; the weather is dynamic; however, the ground is relatively stable, until an earthquake, mudslide, or flash flood;   
 - to make a case that language, by its very natural dependent on human usage, can be under the influence of manipulation and deception.  
 - to make a case that some value (virtue) in extreme situation or taken to the extreme at either end of the spectrum is highly correlated with maladaptive behavior 
 - to make a case that many concepts (idea, value, virtue, metric) involve tradeoffs with other desired performance characteristics.
 - to make a case that separate concepts (idea, value, virtue, metric) were often interrelated and mutually reinforcing. 
   ____________________________________
Tim Ferriss, Tools of Titans, 2017                                          [ ]

p.175
“Andy Grove had the answer: For every metric, there should be another ‘paired’ metric that addresses adverse consequences of the first metric.”
Marc Andressen on Twitter 

“... For every [virtue], there should be another ‘paired’ [virtue] that addresses adverse consequences of the first [virtue].”

“... For every [value], there should be another ‘paired’ [value] that addresses adverse consequences of the first [value].”

  (Tim Ferriss, Tools of Titans, 2017, 081  Ferriss, ) 
   ____________________________________

Tony Schwartz with Jean Gomes and Catherine McCarthy., The way we're working isn't working: the four forgotten needs that energize great performance, 2010

p.30
On the one hand, it's undeniably more demanding and frustrating to improve in our areas of weakness than to build on our existing strengths.  It's also true that we're likely to be more effective doing whatever it is we already enjoy most and do best. 
On the other hand, a sole focus on strengths creates its own problems. 
“There is always an optimal value”, explained the philosopher Gregory Bateson, “beyond which anything is toxic, no matter what:  oxygen, sleep, psychotherapy, philosophy.”
The Stoic philosophers referred to this paradox as anacoluthia, the mutual entailment of the virtues. 
No virtues, they argued, is a virtue by itself. 
 • No virtues is a virtue by itself. 
Even the noblest virtues have their limits. 

p.30
   Honesty in the absence of compassion [empathy] becomes cruelty.  Tenacity unmediated by flexibility congeals into rigidity.  Confidence untempered by humility is arrogance.  Courage without prudence is recklessness. 
Because all virtues are connected to others, any strength over used ultimately becomes a liability.  Inhaling deeply is useful, but only if we're equally capable of exhaling just as deeply.  Even pleasure and pain are connected.  Pushing beyond our comfort zone is uncomfortable, but it's the only means by which we can learn and grow, and ultimately perform better and experience deeper satisfaction.  This understanding has ancient roots. 
“”─“”‘’•─“” 
pp.30-31
In Chinese philosophy, yin and yang refer to opposing forces that are actually interdependent and part of a greater whole.  Seng-ts'an, a Chinese Zen master [a Japanese Zen master, or, a Chinese Ch'an master], put it this way: “If you want the truth to stand clear before you, never be for or against. The struggle between ‘for’ and ‘against’ is the mind's worst disease.” [Zen is Japanese Buddhism that came to be adopted by, associated with the Japanese warrior class]

    (Schwartz, Tony, 1952-, HF5549.5.P37S39 2010, 658.3'128—dc22, copyright © 2010)
(The way we're working isn't working : the four forgotten needs that energize great performance / Tony Schwartz, with Jean Gomes and Catherine McCarthy. — 1st Free Press hardcover ed., 1. performance., 2. work — psychological aspects., 3. organizational effectiveness., 4. personnel management., )
   ____________________________________
Even a sheet of paper has two sides
                   --Japanese Proverb
   ____________________________________
An introduction to buddhism

An introduction to buddhism : teachings on the four noble truths, the eight verses on training the mind, and the lamp fo the path to enlightenment 
by The Dalai Lama
translated by Thupten Jinpa 

2004, 2003, 2018

pp.92-93
   At this point it may be helpful to reflect a little on the different levels of meaning in the principle of dependent origination.  On one level dependent origination refers to the nature of things and events as understood  in term of their dependence upon causes and conditions. 
On another level this dependence can be understood more in terms of mutual dependence.  For example, there is a mutuality of concepts between, say, long and short, in which something is posited as “long” in relation to something else that is “short”.  Similarly, things and events have both parts and a whole; the whole is constituted of the parts, and the parts are posited in relation to the whole. 

An introduction to buddhism : teachings on the four noble truths, the eight verses on training the mind, and the lamp fo the path to enlightenment 
   The Dalai Lama
translated by Thupten Jinpa 
2004, 2003, 2018
   ____________________________________
Tao te ching
  Lao Tsu 

a new translation by Gia-Fu Feng and Jane English

TWO

Under heaven all can see beauty as beauty only because there is ugliness.
All can know good as good only because there is evil. 

Therefore having and not having arise together. 
Difficult and easy complement each other.
Long and short contrast each other;
High and low rest upon each other;
Voice and sound harmonize each other;
Front and back follow one another.

Therefore the sage goes about doing nothing, teaching no-talking.
The ten thousand things rise and fall without cease, 
Creating, yet not possessing,
Working, yet not taking credit.
Work is done, then forgotten.
Therefore it last forever. 

source: 
https://terebess.hu/english/tao/gia.html#Kap02
   ____________________________________

The Project Gutenberg EBook of Tao Teh King, by Lao-Tze

This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with
almost no restrictions whatsoever.  You may copy it, give it away or
re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included
with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org

Title: Tao Teh King
Author: Lao-Tze

Release Date: July 12, 2008 [EBook #216]
Last Updated: February 4, 2013

Language: English
Character set encoding: ASCII

*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK TAO TEH KING ***

Produced by Gregory Walker, and David Widger

THE TAO TEH KING,
OR
THE TAO AND ITS CHARACTERISTICS
by Lao-Tse
Translated by James Legge 

 2. 1. All in the world know the beauty of the beautiful, and in doing this they have (the idea of) what ugliness is; they all know the skill of the skilful, and in doing this they have (the idea of) what the want of skill is.

2. So it is that existence and non-existence give birth the one to (the idea of) the other; that difficulty and ease produce the one (the idea of) the other; that length and shortness fashion out the one the figure of the other; that (the ideas of) height and lowness arise from the contrast of the one with the other; that the musical notes and tones become harmonious through the relation of one with another; and that being before and behind give the idea of one following another.

3. Therefore the sage manages affairs without doing anything, and conveys his instructions without the use of speech.

4. All things spring up, and there is not one which declines to show itself; they grow, and there is no claim made for their ownership; they go through their processes, and there is no expectation (of a reward for the results). The work is accomplished, and there is no resting in it (as an achievement).

   The work is done, but how no one can see;
  'Tis this that makes the power not cease to be.

source: 
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/216/216-h/216-h.htm
   ____________________________________

• what we observe is not nature in itself but nature exposed to our method of questioning. ── Werner Karl Heisenberg [1901─1976]

• To him who looks upon the world rationally, the world in its turn presents a rational aspect.  The relation is mutual. ── Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel 
[1770─1831]

 - mutual dependence. (dependent origination)
   - mutuality of concepts 
     - long and short: “long” exist in relation to that which is “short”.
     - the whole is made up of the parts
     - parts exist in relation to the whole. 

John Bartlett.──17th ed., Bartlett's familiar quotations, 2002
p.760:11
p.760:13
p.760
Werner Karl Heisenberg
1901─1976
11    The more precisely we determine the position [of an electron], the more imprecise is the determination of velocity at this instant, and vice versa.1
          On the Perceptual content of quantum
          Theorectical kinematics and mechanics [1927]
          1  Heisenberg's “uncertainty principle.”

13    Since the measuring device has been constructed by the observer ... we have to remember that what we observe is not nature in itself but nature exposed to our method of questioning. 
          Physics and philosophy

p.390
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel
1770─1831
6    To him who looks upon the world rationally, the world in its turn presents a rational aspect.  The relation is mutual.
          Philosophy of history, introduction

   ( Bartlett's familiar quotations : a collection of passages, phrases, and proverbs traced to their sources in ancient and modern literature / John Bartlett; edited by Justin Kaplan.──17th ed., rev. and enl., 1. quotation, English, PN6081.B27  1992, 808.88'2──dc20, 2002, )
   ____________________________________
Wisdom Through the Ages
A Collection of Favorite Quotations
Hellen Granat

p.143
We don't see things as they are, we see things as we are.
    ——Anaïs Nin

p.390:6
6    To him who looks upon the world rationally, the world in its turn presents a rational aspect.  The relation is mutual.
       —— Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, 1770─1831 
          Philosophy of history, introduction
          Bartlett's familiar quotations : a collection of passages, phrases, and proverbs traced to their sources in ancient and modern literature / John Bartlett, p.390:6

    (Wisdom Through the Ages : A Collection of Favorite Quotations / Hellen Granat, copyright © 1998, ——, p.143)
   ____________________________________

 • the eventual cost and quality of the product is inseparable from the way it is made. (this statement is a given now a day; however, historically, this was not so; the coordination, communication and the system requirement to put [design for manufacturing] into practice is a heavy lift (big hurdle); [design for manufacturing] is its very own field of study, discipline, knowledge domain, research, and development; the most recent case I can point to is the current Starlink satellite production line.) 
 • the eventual cost and quality of the product is inseparable from the way it is made. (mutual dependency) 

George Stalk, Jr. (and) Thomas M. Hout., Competing against time, 2009       [ ]

p.115
   According to R. E. Gomory, then senior vice president for science and technology at International Business Machines, and R. W. Schmitt, a retired senior vice president for science and technology at the General Electric Company, in the United States

   The design phase of the cycle of development has
   traditionally concentrated on the features and performance
   of the product rather than on the processes by which it is
   manufactured.  We design a product first and then tackle the
   job of how it is to be made.  Yet the eventual cost and quality
   of the product is inseparable from the way it is made.  If a
   product can be made easily, its cost will be low and, most
   probably, its quality high.3 . . .
      Much has been said by industry and government leaders
   about reforming the educational system and strengthening
   the national scientific base——things that help build a strong
   foundation.  A strong science base supplies a vast storehouse
   of new ideas, and a good educational system provides
   engineers and manufacturing workers with knowledge; but
   strength here cannot make up for inadequacies in the
   functioning of the development and manufacturing cycle.
   The United States must learn to succeed, not only in the
   ladder type of innovation in which a wholly new idea from
   science creates a wholly new product (the science-dominated
   process at which we have succeeded in the past), but also at
   the rapid-cycle, engineer-dominated process of incremental
   product improvement.  Neither process is a substitute for the
   other; we need both. 4*

   * Excerpts, Vol. 240, Page 1204, 27 May 1988, "Science and Product." Gomory, R. F. Copyright 1988 by the AAAS.

   (Stalk, George, HD69.T54S73  1990, 658.5'6——dc20, copyright © 2009)
( Competing against time : how time-based competition is reshaping gloabl markets / George Stalk, Jr. (and) Thomas M. Hout., 1. time management., 2. delivery of goods., 3. competition, international., 4. comparative advantage (international trade)., )
   ____________________________________
 • when you make a decision to take an approach - a particular course of action (coa) - the advantages and disadvantages do not "cancel-out" one another; the advantages and disadvantages do not balance each other out either, like on a balancing scale; you might benefit from the advantages, however, you also live with the dis-advantages; the advantages and dis-advantages are the properties (mutual dependency) of the decision; ...    

 • An advantage does not "cancel-out" dis-advantage, the disadvantage remain until 'corrective action' (gets rid of the known cause of a problem) are taken.
 • a disadvantage does not "cancel-out" advantage; the advantage remain; 
 • disadvantages and advantages do not can "cancel-out" each other; both aspect  remain; 

using wealth & poverty as an example 
 • disadvantages [of relative poverty] and advantages [of relative poverty] do not can "cancel-out" each other; both aspect remain; 
 • disadvantages [of relative wealth] and advantages [of relative wealth] do not can "cancel-out" each other; both aspect remain; 
 • beyond a range (stage), additional wealth does not bring equal amount of additional benefit; (the principle of diminishing return comes into play);   
 • argument against merger and acquisition: beyond a range (stage) of scope and scale, bigger does not bring equal amount of additional benefit; (the principle of diminishing return comes into play); see book, Innovator's Dilemma, go to the section in the book with a list of merger and acquisition, and ...  
   - U.S. oriented view 
 • wealth & poverty, both is a relatively new concept; for most of human existing, there was really no need for the usage for the concept of wealth & poverty; 

approach

p.202, p.203
Note that in choosing house A the manager knew why and on what grounds he was doing so.  He did not take the "cancel-out" approach used by some managers in decision making.  In this approach, ([in this approach]) the assumption is that an advantage cancels out a disadvantage so that things even up.  This is not so.

([pause])
If there is a disadvantage attached to an alternative, finding an advantage does not get rid of it.  Once the decision is made, the disadvantage will have to be lived with until it is removed by corrective action of some sort.

([pause])
The only safe way to deal with disadvantages in decision making is to recognize them and to keep them visible before one throughout the process.  A final decision or course of action can then be made in full knowledge of the disadvantage rather than by glossing over defects and hiding them.

([pause])
Having all the assessments that enter into a decision visibly set forth is a major advantage in itself.  For one may readily go back to reexamine the judgements made and consider corrective actions that can be taken to improve an already good alternative.

     © 1965 by Charles H. KEPNER and Benjamin B. TREGOE

     (The Rational Manager : A Systematic Approach to Problem Solving and Decision Making, Charles H. KEPNER, Benjamin B. TREGOE, © 1965, p.202, p.203)
   ____________________________________
the big hairy monster is global warming (G-5, G-7, G-20, BRICS)
it is big
it is hairy
it is a monster because the current industrial base, food, water, transportation, energy and practically everything that you see, know, dont know, taking for granted, comfort as a society and civilization is the root cause of global warming; modern civilization have been living on borrowed time; industrialization, modern mass production, rate of energy usage, consumption, pollution, waste, throw away, disposable, land filled, over production;  
fossil fuel, coal, and ... in it of themselves in the ground, underground, inside the ground, embedded in the crust of Earth, do not cause problem and do not do anything; however, when we development the knowledge, understanding, capability, and capacity to find it, mine it, extract it, process it, figure out what to do with it, make it useful, apply it, make it practical, that is when we reap the advantages from their usefulness, and so with those advantages, we get accompanying disadvantages; the advantages do not cancel out the disadvantages; the advantages do not balance out the disadvantages; we live with the disadvantages; some of the disadvantages take a long time to provide society the necessary feedback to force the academy, science, and decision-makers to take action; what starts out as advantages could turn into disadvantages when view from the perspective of scope, scale, and a longer period of time horizon; the self-interest part of human nature is to pass on the disadvantages to someone else, to the next generation, to keep and use the advantages for special interested parties, ...;  
the next nth generation - the ones that survive - will look back on this period and ask themselves, what were they thinking; how long did they think they could get away with it; and they will be reminded of all intelligence organizations cardinal rule:  do not get caught!  
  1. do not break the rule.
  2. when you break the rule, see #1
  3. do not get caught!
  4. And when you do get caught, have plausible deniability.  
  5. see #1 
   ____________________________________
James C. Collins and Wiliam C. Lazier, Beyond entrepreneurship, 1992        [ ]
p.79
four types of mission
1. targeting
2. common enemy
3. role model
4. internal transformation

   (Collins, James C. (James Charles), Beyond entrepreneurship : turning your business into an enduring great company / James C. Collins and Wiliam C. Lazier., 1. small business-management., 2. organizational effectiveness., HD62.7.C645  1992, 658.4--dc20, 1992,  )
   ____________________________________
buddhism explanation of what is reality? 
 - principle of dependent origination pervade the entire spectrum of reality.  

An introduction to buddhism

An introduction to buddhism : teachings on the four noble truths, the eight verses on training the mind, and the lamp fo the path to enlightenment 
by The Dalai Lama
translated by Thupten Jinpa 

2004, 2003, 2018

pp.92-93
   At this point it may be helpful to reflect a little on the different levels of meaning in the principle of dependent origination.  On one level dependent origination refers to the nature of things and events as understood  in term of their dependence upon causes and conditions. 
On another level this dependence can be understood more in terms of mutual dependence.  For example, there is a mutuality of concepts between, say, long and short, in which something is posited as “long” in relation to something else that is “short”.  Similarly, things and events have both parts and a whole; the whole is constituted of the parts, and the parts are posited in relation to the whole.  ([ this is worth pointing out:  a functional whole with all the parts working in harmony together is greater than the individual parts working independently by themselves - one definition of a community; as a matter-of-fact, a system (like a biological human organism as a system) is that each part exist in a dependent relationship with the whole; ... ]) 

principle of dependent origination.
 - dependence upon causes and conditions. 
 - mutual dependence.
   - mutuality of concepts 
     - long and short: “long” exist in relation to that which is “short”.
     - the whole is made up of the parts
     - parts exist in relation to the whole. 
 - designations, appellations, labels, and so on.
   - a label or a name
   - appellations 
 - these three levels of meaning in the principle of dependent origination pervade the entire spectrum of reality. 

p.93
   On another level still, the principle of dependent origination relates to the subject, which is the conceptual mind that creates designations, appellations, labels, and so on.  As we have briefly discussed before, when we give something a label or a name we generally tend to assume that the labelled object has some kind of true, independent existence.  Yet when we search for the true existence or esssence of the thing in question, we always fail to find it. 
Our conclusion, therefore, is that while things do exist on the conventional level, they do not possess ultimate, objective reality.  
Rather, their existence can only be posited as a mere appellation, designation, or label.  According to Nagarjuna, these three levels of meaning in the principle of dependent origination pervade the entire spectrum of reality.  

principle of dependent origination
 - nature of things and events
 - dependence upon causes and conditions
   - causes and conditions
     - causes ==> conditions
     - conditions ==> causes  
     - causes <== conditions
     - conditions ==> causes
     - causes <=> conditions (??)
     - conditions <=> causes (??)
     - conditions ==> causes (the thing that make something happen)  
     - causal chains and conditions
     - causal web of links and nodes =(which exist in relation to)= conditions
     - causal [threads] =(which exist in relation to)= conditions [fabric]
     - [conditional] fabric made from [causal] threads
 - mutual dependence
   - long and short: “long” in relation to “short”
   - things and events have both parts and a whole
     - the whole is make up of the parts
     - parts exist in relation to the whole
     - (conditions) =(is make up of)=> (causes) 
     - (causes or parts) =(exist in relation to)=> (conditions or the whole)
     - (fibers) =( interwoven and twisted into )=> (threads) 
     - (threads) =( woven into )=> (the whole cloth) 
 - designations, appellations, labels, and so on
   - a label or a name
   - appellations [a title, “Great” in Great Britain as one example]
                  [a title, “Great” in Catherine the Great]
 - principle of dependent origination pervade the entire spectrum of reality.  

An introduction to buddhism : teachings on the four noble truths, the eight verses on training the mind, and the lamp fo the path to enlightenment 
   The Dalai Lama
translated by Thupten Jinpa 
2004, 2003, 2018
   ____________________________________
 - mutual dependence.
   - mutuality of concepts 
     - long and short: “long” exist in relation to that which is “short”.
     - the whole is made up of the parts
     - parts exist in relation to the whole. 

John Bartlett.──17th ed., Bartlett's familiar quotations, 2002
    - the whole is made up of the parts
13    One composed of many.5
          Minor Poems, moretum, l. 104
          Virgil [Publius Vergilius Maro] 70─19 B.C.
          5  E pluribus unus.
          adapted (E pluribus unum) for the motto on the face of the Great seal of the united states, adopted June 20, 1782.  For the latin on the reverse of the Great seal, see Virgil, 95:n16 and 96:n3.

   ( Bartlett's familiar quotations : a collection of passages, phrases, and proverbs traced to their sources in ancient and modern literature / John Bartlett; edited by Justin Kaplan.──17th ed., rev. and enl., 1. quotation, English, PN6081.B27  1992, 808.88'2──dc20, 2002, )
   ____________________________________

what is a system?
    “Any system consists of several individual parts.  Each part is essential and related to each other part to attain a certain outcome; each acts as a stimulus to other parts.  The system has an order and a sequence which is determined through the actions, reactions, and interactions among the parts.  This constant interplay governs how the system manifests itself.  A system has life only now, when its component parts are present.”, Virginia Satir, 'The New Peoplemaking', 1988, pp.130-131.
    "Another important part of any system is that it tends to perpetuate itself.  Once established, a system will stay the same until it dies or something changes it: a part breaks down from lack of care or because of a defect; or a catastrophic event affects the system.  Sometimes even a minor incident can overwhelm the system, which indicates that the system's designers behaved as though change would never happen.";--the new people making, by virginia satir, 1988, p.136

4. Open or close (Virginia Satir, 'The New Peoplemaking')  [ ]
Systems: Open or Closed?

<I have located the book, added page numbers, added some text, changed the formatting to match closer to the book. 01/10/2015>

<follow the link to see how the other person re-presented the TEXT.>
https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0AaVAawimx1mOZGdiOXpzcG1fMzQ1ZjJqN21tZ2g&hl=en&authkey=CJqAyP4H
(link access & verify 01/10/2015)

pp.130-131
Systems: Open or Closed?

In this chapter I want to discuss something that at first you might not think has much to do with your family and peoplemaking.  Stay with me.  The concept of systems was borrowed from the world of industry and commerce.  It has become a way of understanding how human being in groups work.
   Any system consists of several individual parts.  Each part is essential and related to each other part to attain a certain outcome; each acts as a stimulus to other parts.  The system has an order and a sequence which is determined through the actions, reactions, and interactions among the parts.  This constant interplay governs how the system manifests itself.  A system has life only now, when its component parts are present.
   Sounds confusing?  It isn't really.  You put yeast, flour, water, and sugar together to make bread.  The bread isn't like any one of its ingredients, yet it contains all of them.
  
   Steam isn't like any of its parts, but it contains them all.

   All human life is part of a system.  We hear a lot about beating the system, which would seem to say that all systems are bad.  Not so.  Some are and some are not.  The implications of systems thinking for personal, family, and societal behavior are evident everywhere today; in the early Seventies, when this book first came out, they were just beginning to be apparent.

   An operating system consists of the following: 

     A purpose or goal.  Why does this system exist in the first place?  In families, the purpose is to grow new people and to further the growth of those already here.  
     Essential parts.  In families, this means adults and children, males and females.
     An order to the parts' working.[<--verify 01/10/2015]  In families, this refers to the various family members' self-esteem, rules, and communication.
     Power to maintain energy in the system so the parts can work.  In families, this power is derived from food, shelter, air, water, activity, and beliefs about the emotional, intellectual, physical, social, and spiritual lives of the family members and how they work  together.
    Ways of interacting with the outside.  In families, this means relating to changing contents, the new and the different.  
    
There are two types of systems: closed and open.  The main difference between them is the nature of their reactions to change, both from the inside and from the outside.
.
.
.
    ([ as far as I know, no system is absolutely/completely closed or open.  ])

p.132
    ...  Closed family systems evolve from certain sets of beliefs: 

          People are basically evil and must be continually controlled to be good.  
          Relationships have to be regulated by force or by fear of punishment.
          There is one right way, and the person with power has it.  
          There is always someone who knows what is best for you.
.
..
.
p.133
    Now we come to an important philosophical question.  
     Do you believe that All human life deserves the highest priority?

       "I believe this with all my being."

p.133
    As before, ask them to take different names and to pick one of the growth-impeding communication styles (placating, blaming, computing, or distracting).

  p.136
    "Another important part of any system is that it tends to perpetuate itself.  Once established, a system will stay the same until it dies or something changes it: a part breaks down from lack of care or because of a defect; or a catastrophic event affects the system.  Sometimes even a minor incident can overwhelm the system, which indicates that the system's designers behaved as though change would never happen.";--the new people making, by virginia satir, 1988, p.136

pp.139-140
    ...  Far too many adults have forgotten how to enjoy the simply pleasures children find in life.  Simple sharing among groups can help greatly in these areas.
    All families are in balance.  The question is: What is the cost to each family member to maintain that balance?  
   
I think the stakes are high regarding the nature of your family system.  The family is the one place in the world where all of us can expect nurturing: soothing bruised souls, elevating self-worth, as well as getting things done.
   The family is the obvious place to learn this nurturing and growing [and developing].  To achieve these goals and become truly vital, there has to be continual observation and changing and reshaping in the family.  This can only take place in an open system.

    The New Peoplemaking;
    Virginia Satir, 1988;
    pp.130-131, p.132, p.133, p.136, pp.139-140 
   ____________________________________
highly correlated

“There are certain personality characteristics that are highly correlated with academic and professional success: dedication to work, attention to detail, ability to manage time, conscientiousness. People who have this constellation of traits are generally excellent students and productive workers. They can also be difficult to live with.”

“If we try to impose a businesslike, vertically integrated decision-making structure on our families, we are likely to encounter resentment and resistance. Conversely, if our style tends to be impulsive, superficial, and pleasure-seeking, we may find it difficult to succeed at work.”

source:
https://www.nateliason.com/notes/soon-old-late-smart-gordon-livingston

Too Soon Old, Too Late Smart by Gordon Livingston
   ____________________________________
 • A given modification by itself may raise new, unanticipated difficulties or turn out to involve tradeoffs with other desired performance characteristics. 
 • separate innovations were often interrelated and mutually reinforcing. 

Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982
p.123
  The learning-by-using experience generates two very different kinds of useful knowledge that, borrowing from a well-established terminology, we may designate as embodied or disembodied.  In the first case, the early experience with a new technology leads to better understanding of the relationship between specific design characteristics and performance that permit subsequent improvements in design.  In this case, the result is an appropriate design modification.  What we are describing here is a feedback loop in the development stage.  Optimal design often involves many iterations.  A given modification by itself may raise new,
unanticipated difficulties or turn out to involve tradeoffs with other desired performance characteristics. This knowledge is pursued in prototype testing, but such testing may not disclose various kinds of useful information.

p.246
The industrial revolution, beginning in Great Britain in the last third of the 18th century, had at its center a rapidly expanding armamentarium of new technologies involving new power sources, new techniques of metallury and machine making, a new modes of transportation.  These new technologies, when successfully organized and administered, brought immense improvements in the productivity that transformed the lives of all participants. 

p.246
The separate innovations - in metallury, power generation, and transportation - were, in significant ways, interrelated and mutually reinforcing.  Often, one innovation could not be extensively exploited in the absence of others or the introduction of one innovation made others more effective.  Metallurgical improvements, for example, were absolutely indispensable to the construction of more efficient steam engines.  The steam engine, in turn, was utilized for introducting a hot blast of air into the blast furnace.  The hot blast, by improving the efficiency of the combustion process, lowered fuel requirements and thereby reduced th price of iron.  Thus, cheaper metal meant cheaper power, and cheaper power was translated into even cheaper metal.  Similarly, the availability of cheap iron was essential to the construction of railroads.  Once in place, however, the railroads reduced the considerable cost of transporting coal and iron ore to a single location.  In this fashion, railroads reduced the cost of making iron.  But cheaper iron, in turn, meant cheaper rails; this involved a further lowering of transportation costs, which again decreased the cost of producing iron.  Thus, part of the secret of the vast productivity improvements associated with the new industrial technology was the the separate innovations were often interrelated and mutually reinforcing. 
  Although this transformation, which we call the industrial revolution, began in Britian, there was never any doubt that such new technologies would spread and be adopted elsewhere when the circumstances and surrounding condition permitted (or were created). 

  (Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673   1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )
   ____________________________________
https://blas.com/the-second-law/

  • as [the] theory develops, we shall use our increased insight to build more general definitions and find the most all-embracing definition ... .  That is ... the delights of science: the more deeply a concept is understood, the more widely [a concept] casts its net. 

source: 
The second law
P. W. Atkins

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/1308474.The_Second_Law
 The Second Law
(Scientific American Library Series #10)
by Peter Atkins
All natural change is subject to one law. It's the second law of thermodynamics. In this volume, the acclaimed chemist and science writer P. W. Atkins shows how this single, simple principal of energy transformation accounts for all natural change. Moving from the steam engine to the nuclear age, the narrative is full of vivid examples, ideas, and images - but virtually no mathematics. 

https://blas.com/the-second-law/
The Second Law by PW Atkins

Summary

    PW Atkins’ beautiful book, The Second Law, defines what the second law means and how it impacts every facet of the world and our lives

Key Takeaways

  1.The Laws of Thermodynamics
     1. The name thermodynamics is a blunderbuss term originally denoting the study of heat, but now extended to include the study of the transformation of energy in all its forms. It is based on a few statements that constitute succinct summaries of people’s experiences with the way that energy behaves in the course of its transformations. These summaries are The Laws of Thermodynamics. Although we shall be primarily concerned with just one of these laws, it will be useful to have at least a passing familiarity with all of them. There are four laws. The third of them, the second law, was recognized first; the first, the zeroth law, was formulated last; the first law was second; the third law might not even be a law in the same sense as the others
         1. Zeroth Law
             1. The zeroth Law was a kind of logical afterthought. Formulated by about 1931, it deals with the possibility of defining the temperature of things. Temperature is one of the deepest concepts of thermodynamics, and I hope this book will sharpen your insight into its elusive nature. Simply, around thermal equilibrium and 
         2. First Law
             1. The first law is popularly stated as “energy is conserved.” 
         3. Second Law
             1. The second law recognizes that there is a fundamental dissymmetry in Nature: the rest of this book is focused on that dissymmetry. All around us are aspects of that dissymmetry: hot objects cool, but cool objects do not spontaneously become hot; a bouncing ball comes to rest, but a stationary ball does not spontaneously begin to bounce. Although the total quantity of energy must be conserved in any process, the distribution of that energy changes in an irreversible manner. The second law is concerned with the natural direction of change of the distribution of energy, something that is quite independent of its total quantity
             2. Energy drops from the hot source to the cold sink, and is conserved; but because we have set up this flow from hot to cold, we are able to draw only some energy off as work; so not all the energy drops into the cold. The cold sink appears to be essential, for only if it is available can we set up the energy fall, and draw off some as work. In every engine, there has to be a cold sink, and that at some stage of the cycle energy must be discarded into it. That little mouse of experience is nothing other than the second law of thermodynamics. All the law seems to be saying is that heat cannot be completely converted into work in a cyclic engine: some has to be discarded into a cold sink. That is, we appear to have identified a fundamental tax: Nature accepts the equivalence of heat and work, but demands a contribution whenever heat is converted into work. Note the dissymmetry. Nature does not tax the conversion of work into heat: we may fritter away our hard-won work by friction, and do so completely. It is only heat that cannot be so converted. Heat is taxed; work is not. 
                 1. No process is possible in which the sole result is the absorption of heat from a reservoir and its complete conversion into work.
                 2. Similarly, no process is possible in which the sole result is the transfer of energy from a cooler to a hotter body (flow from cold to hot is possible but not natural. Only the spontaneous shift of heat from cold to hot without there being change elsewhere is against nature..)
                 3. Natural processes are accompanied by an increase in the entropy of the universe.
             3. The domain of the second law is corruption and decay
([ work and heat are names of methods, not names of things (NOT a person, NOT a place, NOT a thing, a method) ])
([ work and heat are names relating to the transfer of energy ])
([ heat is a name of methods ])
([ heat is relating to the transfer of energy ])
([ heat means to transfer energy in a special way ])
([ heat is not a form of energy: it is a method of transferring energy ])
             4. One of the most important contributions of 19th century thermodynamics is our comprehension that work and heat are names of methods, not names of things…Both heat and work are terms relating to the transfer of energy. To heat an object means to transfer energy in a special way (making use of a temperature difference between the hot and the heated). To cool an object is the negative of heating it: energy is transferred out of the object under the influence of a difference in temperature between the cold and the cooled. It is most important to realize, and to remember throughout the following pages, that heat is not a form of energy: it is the name of a method of transferring energy. The same is true of work. Work is what you do when you need to change the energy of an object by a means that does not involve temperature difference. Thus, lifting a weight from the floor and moving a truck to the top of a hill involves work. Like heat, work is not a form of energy: it is the name of a method for transferring energy. 
             5. Work into Quality
                 1. Suppose we have a certain amount of energy that we can draw from a hot source, and an engine to convert it into work. We know that the second law demands that we have a cold sink too; so we arrange for the engine to operate in the usual way. We can extract the appropriate quantity of work, and pay our tax to Nature by dumping a contribution of energy as heat into the cold sink. The energy we have dumped into the cold sink is then no longer available for doing work (unless we happen to have an even colder reservoir available). Therefore, in some sense, energy stored at a high temperature has a better “quality”: high-quality energy is available for doing work; low-quality energy, corrupted energy, is less available for doing work…Just as the increasing entropy of the universe is the signpost of natural change and corresponds to energy being stored at ever-lower temperatures, so we can say that the natural direction of change is the one that causes the quality of energy to decline: the natural processes of the world are manifestations of this corruption of quality
                 2. Here is our first major result of thermodynamics: we now know how to minimize the heat we throw away: we keep the cold sink as cold as possible, and the hot source as hot as possible. That is why modern power stations use superheated steam: cold sinks are hard to come by; so the most economical procedure is to use as hot a source as possible. That is, the designer aims to use the highest-quality energy…There appears to be a limit to the lowness of temperature. The conversion efficiency of heat to work cannot exceed unity, for otherwise the first law would be contravened…Absolute zero appears to be unattainable
                     1. Hottest possible source, coldest possible sink. This contrast offers the most efficient system
                     2. Some deep thread with velocity, friction, superheated sources and super cooled sinks
                 3. Quality must reflect the absence of chaos. High-quality energy must be undispersed energy, energy that is highly localized (as in a lump of coal or a nucleus of an atom); it may also be energy that is stored in the coherent motion of atoms (as in the flow of water)
             6. When we do work on a system, we are stimulating its particles with coherent motion; when we heat a system, we are stimulating its particles with incoherent motion
                 1. Deep thread with coherence, superfluidity, work 
             7. Thermal equilibrium corresponds to the most probable state of the universe…So long as a process is occurring in which more chaos is generated than is being destroyed, then the balance of the energy may be withdrawn as coherent motion…The state of more chaos can allow greater coherence locally, so long as greater dissipation has occurred elsewhere…Order on any scale can arise from collapse into chaos: order springs locally from disorder elsewhere. Such is the spring of change. 
             8. Chaos determines not only destiny but also the rate at which that destiny is achieved
         4. Third Law
             1. The third law of thermodynamics deals with the properties of matter at very low temperatures. It states that we cannot bring matter to a temperature of absolute zero in a finite number of steps. 
     1. Fluid flows from a hot, thermally “high” source to a cold, thermally “low” sink
 2. Other
     1. Work and heat are mutually inter-convertible, and heat is not a substance like water
     2. An engine is something that converts heat into work. Work is a process such as raising a weight. Indeed, we shall define work as any process that is equivalent to the raising of a weight. Later, as this theory develops, we shall use our increased insight to build more general definitions and find the most all-embracing definition right at the end. That is one of the delights of science: the more deeply a concept is understood, the more widely it casts its net. 
         1. Work is a way of transferring energy between a system and its surroundings; it is a transfer effected in such a way that a weight could be raised in the surroundings as a result. When work is done on a system, the change in the surroundings is equivalent to the lowering of a weight.
     3. The godfathers of the field are Kelvin, Clausius, Carnot, and Boltzmann

What I got out of it

 1. The last half was a bit too technical for me but there were a couple fundamental ideas which were clarified around the second law of thermodynamics. Two of the biggest, for me, are that quality of energy = capacity for work (think this is a fascinating way to think about the elusive idea of “quality”) and the idea that the larger the contrast between the hot source and the cold sink, the more efficient the system is (this is an idea which can be applied to every facet of your life…seek out contrast…, aka competitive advantage…)

sub-source: 
Tim Ferriss, Tools of Titans, 2017                                          [ ]
p.322
The second law
P. W. Atkins

Chris Young 
chefsteps.com
p.322
One of the books that Chris has found himself gifting a lot is an out-of-print book on thermodynamics called The Second Law.
“It was written by an Oxford physical chemistry professor named P. W. Atkins.  That book is just an phenomenal, casual, infographic-laden read on how the world works from an energy perspective.  I found that so incredibly useful in trying to understand how to do something, how to make something work, whether something's even possible.  It's frequently my bullshit detector.”

  (Tim Ferriss, Tools of Titans, 2017, 081  Ferriss, ) 
   ____________________________________
   ____________________________________
“”─“”‘’•─“”
  <---------------------------------------------------------------------------->
--
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior permission of the publisher.  

NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C., section 107, some material is provided without permission from the copyright owner, only for purposes of criticism, comment, scholarship and research under the "fair use" provisions of federal copyright laws. These materials may not be distributed further, except for "fair use," without permission of the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml
 

hedgehog and the fox

 John Bartlett.──17th ed., Bartlett's familiar quotations, 2002

p.56
Archilochus
early 7th century B.C.

22    The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one great thing.1
          Fragment 103
          1  the fox has man tricks, and the hedgehog has only one, but that is the best of all.── erasmus, Adagia [1500].
          see sir Isaiah Berlin, 782:3.

p.782
Sir Isaiah Berlin
1909─1997

3   There exists a great chasm between those, on one side, who relate everything to a single, central vision, one system more or less coherent or articulate, in terms of which they understand, think and feel ... and, on the other side, those who pursue many ends, often unrelated and even contradictory ....  The first kind of intellectual and artistic personality belongs to the hedgehogs, the second to the foxes .... Dante belongs to the first category, Shakespeare to the second. 
          The  Hedgehog and the Fox [1953], pt. 1 1
          1  see Archilochus, 56:22.

p.142:15
p.142
Niccolò Machiavelli5
1469─1527
15    A prince being thus obliged to know well how to act as a beast must imitate the fox and the lion, for the lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves.  One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves. 
          The prince, 17 

   ( Bartlett's familiar quotations : a collection of passages, phrases, and proverbs traced to their sources in ancient and modern literature / John Bartlett; edited by Justin Kaplan.──17th ed., rev. and enl., 1. quotation, English, PN6081.B27  1992, 808.88'2──dc20, 2002, )
   ____________________________________

polyethylene, polymer science

 Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982

pp.152-153
p.152
There are other powerful reasons why the relations between science and technology cannot be adequately described by visualizing scientific research as appearing first, eventually leading to applications in technology.  Many aspects of a material are not explored scientifically until the material has been used for a long time.  This is because many problems connected with the use of a new material take time to emerge.  A major concern of materials research has been to improve performance by eliminating problems that often emerge only after prolonged use.  Many materials are subject to an all-too-familiar and depressing litany of degradation, fracturing, contamination, aging, corrosion, brittleness under complex stress, and a host of related maintenance difficulties.  

p.153
Thus, a great deal of research was conducted at Bell Labs on polyethylene before its widespread use on cable sheathing and wire insulation.  Nevertheless, a whole new generation of problems arose after it had been installed.  Much additional research, stimulated in part by these on-line difficulties, led to a much deeper understanding of its solidification pattern, or morphology.  Out of this second generation of research came a much deeper understanding of how this morphology determines important mechanical, electrical, and chemical properties.23   

p.153
The brittleness of polyethylene turned out to be influenced by its molecular weight and crystallinity, and so its molecular weight was increased.  The disturbing tendency of polyethylene to oxidize readily was counteracted by the development and use of antioxidant compounds, and so on. 

p.153
  The growth of knowledge is much more cumulative and interactive than is realied, especially when it is thought of as a one-shot, once-and-for-all affair, with new scientific knowledge supposedly leading to technological application ─ period.  In fact, continuing experiences with a material in a new environment, subject to new stresses, throw up new problems not dealt with, or even anticipated, before. 

p.153
  High-technology industries, by pushing against the limits of technical performance, are continually identifying new problems that can be addressed by science.  At the same time, the prospective improvement in performance or reduction in costs promises large financial rewards.  The intriguing question, of course, is why this mechanism seems to work so much better in some industries ─ or some firms ─ than others. 

23  “An Interview with Dr. Bruce Hannay”, Bell Laboratories Record, February 1969, pp.45-52.  As W. O. Baker has pointed out, “the aspect of polymer science that has enabled so dramatic an expansion into telecommunications ... within the past two decades, is the remarkable information transfer between behavior of the chemical entity (that is, the single average polymer molecule) and its physical embodiment, as in viscoelastic fluid form, or in solids, and ultimately in the increasingly adapted crystal itself.  This is where polymore science is favored both intellectually and materially, for in the case of so many classes of matter, the coupling of bulk properties (tangible strength, resilience, friction, electrical nature, and so forth) with the basic structural unit, the atom or molecule, is far weaker.  Metals are the classic other extreme, where the solid and liquid properties are almost wholly dominated by the aggregate although, of course, the total electronic structure of the single atom is of central significance.  In addition, however, the individual molecular units in polymers themselves operate on a time scale of both mechanical and electrical relaxation such that a great range of conformations and of temporal responses can be obtained in their application.  These factors are reflected in the growth of amounts of polymers used in the past decade by the Bell Telephone System.”  “The Use of Polymer Science in Telecommunications”, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, p.620.

p.156 
The burgeoning of organic chemical research in the last third of the 19th century was largely a consequence of Perkin's successful synthesis of mauvine, the first synthetic aniline dye. 

p.156  Leo Baekland, in 1909
The rapid expansion of basic research on the behavior of large molecules was a consequence of “the development by Leo Baekland, in 1909, of phenol-formaldehyde compositions which can be molded into any shape and hardened through molecular cross-linking by heating under pressure.”26

26  Kranszberg and Smith, “Materials in History and Science”, p. 25. 

p.74
Since the 1930s the building industry has been the recipient of numerous new plastics products that have found a wide range of uses, not the least of which has been cheap plastic sheeting that made possible an extension of the construction year by providing protection on the building site against inclement weather.44 

p.74
44  “In the past thirty (30) years, one new major class of materials has been introduced into the building industry:  plastics.  Polyvinyl chloride dates from 1936; Polystyrene, from 1938; Malamines, from 1939; Polyethylene, from 1942; Polyesters, from 1952; and Urethanes, from 1953.  All of these products have been developed within the chemical industry, many of them as snythetic products for wartime use.  The growth of plastics has been rapid.  The Census of Manufacturers reports a 1937 volume of $67 million, a 1950 volume of $791.8 million, and a 1958 volume of $1.8 billion ... De Marco of Monsanto Chemical Company estimated ... that in 1959 approximately 5 billion pounds of plastic were produced with about 18% going into the construction industry.  It is further estimated that the construction industry's consumption rose from 501 to 866 million pounds between 1956 and 1959.  About 40% of these plastics were in paints, 20% in laminates and floor coverings, and another 20% in wire coatings and electrical devices and controls”  (Little [n. 20 above], pp. 120-1). 

  (Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673   1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )
   ____________________________________
Clayton M. Christensen, The innovator's prescription, 2009                  [ ]  

p.321
Christensen recounted the history of plastic molecule-building technology in this course a couple of years ago and then asserted, “At any point today if you will just stand and turn around 360 degrees, you'll be able to see or touch about 20 plastics and fibers that have proven to be an extraordinary blessing to mankind, because of their cost, durability, and appearance. But this blessing ([and possibly a curse]) did not come by replicating the expertise of DuPont's scientists. It came from scientific and technological progress that commoditized their expertise.”

   ( Christensen, Clayton M., 2009, The innovator's prescription : a disruptive solution for health care / by Clayton M. Christensen, Jerome H. Grossman, Jason Hwang., 1. Health services administration., 2. Public health administration.
3. Disruptive technologies., RA971.C56  2009, 362.1  Christen,  )
   ____________________________________
  <---------------------------------------------------------------------------->

currency, poverty, standard

 The council on foreign relation (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries.  Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, D.C., and other cities where senior government officials, member of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a studies program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both finding and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org. 

The Council of Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government.  All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors. 

2010
“”─“”‘’•─“”
   ____________________________________
 • “the morality of speculation in developing countries:  If currencies crashed, millions of innocents would be forced into desperate poverty.19”, Sebastian Mallaby., More money than god : hedge funds and the making of a new elite, 2010.,  pp.201-202; 

Sebastian Mallaby., More money than god : hedge funds and the making of a new elite, 2010.   

currency of Thailand
pp.198-207
pp.197-198
To run these new start-ups, Soros recruited new talent, including a Princeton-trained economist named Arminio Fraga. 
When the two men met in early 1993, Fraga, a Brazilian, had just left a position as a deputy governor at his country's central bank. 
Within a few days, Soros had offered him a partnership. 

p.198
   For the next four years at Soros, Fraga performed the benign function of hedge funds:  to finance emerging economies that were shunned by traditional investors.  He bought the bonds of big Latin countries such as Brazil and Venezuela; he branched out into exotica such as Moroccan loans; he bought shares in Brazilian utilities, which were absurbly cheap by international standards. 
p.198
Then in late 1996 Fraga attended a talk by Stan Fischer, the number two at the International Monetary Fund.  The mood was mostly upbeat:  Mexico's currency had recovered from its crisis, and emerging markets were booming.  Still, somebody asked Fischer the question “Who do you think is the next Mexico?”
p.198
   “I'm not sure there's another one out there at the moment”, Fischer answered. “But I do see some imbalances in Asia. That might be interesting to look at.”
   That comment, Fraga recalled later, “put a little light in my mind”.10  A few weeks afterward, Fraga read a joint IMF-Federal Reserve paper titled “The Twin Crises”, which laid out in terrifying detail how a currency collapse could interact with the collapse of a banking system.11 
p.198
Casting his mind back to Fischer's remarks, Fraga approached Druckenmiller.
   “Do you mind if I go and take a look at what is going on in Asia?” he asked him. 
   “Sure”, came the answer. “Go”.12
 
p.198, p.199
in Jaunary 1997, Fraga landed in Thailand
local officials, company executives, and economists, 
the country fitted the double-crisis model laid out in the IMF-Fed paper. 
If the foreigners tired of lending to Thailand, the country would have to export enough not only to cover its import bill but also to repay outsiders.  To boost exports and cut imports, the Thai baht would have to fall ── sharply. 

p.199
   The tipping point for Fraga came during a visit to the Bank of Thailand.  Together with David Kowitz, Soros's expert on Asian equities, and Rodney Jones, an economist who worked for Soros in Hong Kong, Fraga was granted an audience with a high-ranking official at the central bank.  
p.199
Invoking his own experience as the deputy governor of Brazil's central bank, Fraga offered some thoughts on the dilemma that Thailand confronted:  

p.200
Fraga had a mild manner, and his Brazilian background helped; he seemed more like a benign emerging-market peer than a menacing Wall Street predator.  So the official looked at Fraga and gave him an answer that was at once honest and naïve.  
p.200
   The official repeated his statement, and the Soros team got what it was looking for.  Their host had told them that he knew the game was up:  He had confessed and reconfessed his nakedness.  Whatever the official pronouncements on Thailand's commitment to its exchange-rate peg, it was only a matter of time before the baht was devalued. 

p.200
   After a stop in South Korea, Fraga returned to New York and reported back to Druckenmiller. 

p.200
The big man listened to Fraga's story and quickly approved a trade, and over the space of a few days in late January, the Soros team sold short about $2 billion worth of the Thai currency.14 
The selling was both a prediction of a crisis and a trigger that could bring it on: 

p.201
The Soros team had taken out baht loans of six months' duration and had locked in the low interest rates that had existed before the government hiked them.  Secure in their positions, Druckenmiller and Fraga could afford to wait until the end of July for the inevitable to happen.16


pp.201-202
the morality of speculation in developing countries:  If currencies crashed, millions of innocents would be forced into desperate poverty.19 

p.203
The new position still represented only a third of the Soros funds' capital, a fraction of what Druckenmiller could have sold if he had leveraged up aggressively.  But now Druckenmiller was no longer the only player in the game; Thai investors were leading the charge out of the baht, and other hedge funds were following.  Paul Tudor Jones, who spoke with Druckenmiller several times each day, was quick to put on a trade, as did several of the other macro funds from the tight-knit group around him.  The biggest player after Druckenmiller was probably Julian Robertson's Tiger, which built a short position in the baht that eventually came to $2 billion.21

p.204
On May 15, the day after Druckenmiller upped the ante, the Thai authorities forbade all banks from lending baht to anyone outside the country.  This put short sellers in a bind:  They could no longer borrow baht in order to sell them unless they secured the loans offshore at punitive interest rates.  Tiger, for example, had financed some of its positions by borrowing baht on a short-term basis, figuring that it could roll over the loans as they came due; now it was forced to renew them at vastly higher interest rates:  
“”─“”‘’•“”

p.205
But by doggedly calling the banks that executed the government's sell orders in the forward markets, Jones had pieced together the alarming rate at which real reserves were dwindling.  By his reckoning, the Bank of Thailand had used up $21 billion worth of reserves in May alone, a stunning two thirds of its war chest.26 

p.206
Over the next three months, it fell by 32 percent against the dollar.  The Soros funds gained about $750 million from the devaluation, and Julian Robertson gained perhaps $300 million;29  meanwhile, Thailand's output collapsed by 17 percent from its peak, destroying businesses and jobs and plunging millions into poverty.  By an uncanny coincidence, July 1, 1997, was the day when Britain ceded control over Hong Kong. 

   (More money than god : hedge funds and the making of a new elite / Sebastian Mallaby.,  1. hedge funds., 2. investment advisors.,  HG4530.M249  2010, 332.64'524──dc22, 2010, )
   ____________________________________
Sebastian Mallaby., More money than god : hedge funds and the making of a new elite, 2010.   

pp.249-252
p.249
   The original of Tiger's losses went back to the summer, when a confident Julian Robertson had written an upbeat investor letter.

p.249
Robertson had been particularly impressed by the discussion of the yen.  Japan was deregulating its financial markets, allowing investors to shift money abroad; and with yen interest rates at just over 1 percent, it seemed obvious that Japanese savers would seize the chance to earn more on their investments.
p.249
As Japanese capital flooded abroad, the yen would head down.  Robertson left his investors in no doubt that he would short Japan's currency. 

p.249
so Robertson had underestimated the extent to which deleveraging would hit his yen trade.  
pp.249-250
Precisely because yet interest rates were low, traders borrowed the Japanese currency to finance their positions around the world; if they dumped those positions and paid their yen back, the currency would be pushed upward ── the opposite of what Robertson was expecting.  

p.250
It was the day that Tiger's yen bet started to go wrong.  Japan's currency rose 7 percent against the dollar over the next month, and Tiger saw over $1 billion of its capital evaporate. 
   That was only the start of Tiger's troubles, however.  Just as Long-Term was hammered by rivals who knew too much about its positions, so Robertson found himself in a similar predictament.  

p.250
The moment that Robertson sent out his July letter, every trader knew he was short Japan's currency; and the more the yen rose, the more they expected him to be forced to staunch his lossses by buying back yen and closing his position. 
p.250
On October 7 the yen jumped especially sharply , and traders sensed that Robertson would crack.  They drove the yen up still more, calculating that Tiger's compelled exist from its trade would deliver yen holders a handsome profit. 
p.250
   By around 10:00 A.M. on October 8, 1998, Japan's currency had appreciated by an astonishing 12 percent since the previous morning.  
p.250
More than $2 billion of Tiger's equity had gone up in smoke; 

p.250
   Robertson convened a crisis council of his top lieutenants.  They gathered in is splendid corner office, with its panoramic views of Manhattan; but the spectacle that mattered was flashing and blinking in the windowless core of their building, where the trading desk monitored the yen's surge upward. 

p.251
By an irony that was no doubt lost on the participants, the man who dominated the crisis council was none other than Michael Bills, the son of the military aviator who had joined Tiger after Tom Wolfe called him and talked about the fighter-pilot culture. 
p.251
Bills argued to his colleagues that the market had gone crazy because it thought Tiger was on its knees; if Tiger could show that it still had the right stuff, it could restore Wall Street to its senses.
p.251
Bills proposed that Tiger should attack rather than retreat.  Rather than closing out its yen short, as the market expected, it should demonstrate its fearlessness by adding to its bet against Japan's currency.  One brave gesture would prove to predatory traders that it was not easy meat.  The yen would stop speeding upward. 

p.251
Dan Morehead, Tiger's currency trader, hurried to his cockpit to execute the Bills plan.  He would add $50 million to Tiger's bet against the yen, gambling that his signal would break the currency's momentum. 

p.251
   Morehead called a dealer at one of the big banks.  He asked for a two-way price on dollar-yen, not wanting to give away whether he was buying or selling.  Normally it took a couple of seconds for the bank to quote a price.  This time there was a lengthy silence.  The expectation that Tiger would soon be fored to buy yen by the billion had scared potential sellers to the sidelines; who wanted to shed yen when Tiger was about to force their price up?  
p.251
Because of the dearth of seller, the market had dried up; there were no trades and no prices.  Morehead's bank dealer would have to name a price in a vacuum.  

p.251
   After a fully half a minute, the answer came back.  The bank would sell Tiger dollars using an exchange rate of 113.5 yen to the dollar; it would buy dollars back using an exchange rate of 111.5 yen to the dollar.  The two-yen gap between the quotes was astronomical ── maybe forty times the spread that Morehead was in a normal market.  Like LTCM before it, Tiger was discovering that liquidity can dry up when it's most needed. 
p.251
   “I buy”, Morehead said. 

p.252
   In that instant, the bank that took his order knew that Tiger was not going to be squeezed out of its trade.  Julian Robertson and his Tigers still had the will to fight!  Only a fool would trade against them!  Seconds later the dearth of sellers came to an abrupt end:  The bank's proprietary traders began dumping yen, and the dumps communicated the sea change to every currency desk on Wall Street. The yen started falling as quickly as it had risen earlier in the day.  The aviator's son had won.  Tiger had been in a tailspin, but disaster had been averted.3

p.252
; Tiger's debt-to-equity ratio was around five to one, which gave it the muscle to hold on to its yen short rather than getting squeezed out of the position.4  But this vindication was scant comfort to Tiger's partners.  During the course of October, Robertson managed to lose $3.1 billion in currencies, primarily from his bet against the yen; and his excuses were not persuasive. 

p.252
Tiger had been short an astonishing $18 billion worth of the currency ── a position almost twice as large as Druckenmiller's famous bet against [British] sterling.6 

p.252
   In the aftermath of this disaster, Robertson promised his investors that he would scale back his currency trading. 
“”─“”‘’•“”
p.254
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”, Keynes famously declared.  Being early and right is the same as being wrong, as investors have repeatedly discovered.
   As the bubble inflated in 1999, Julian Robertson declined to fight it.  He had  no doubt that technology stocks were way too high, but he had lost money on technology shorts the previous year and had concluded that there was no safe way to bet against the bubble.  He was comfortable shorting individual companies, because he could hedge out the risk of a general rise in the market by going long similar stocks.  But when the entire technology sector was overvalued, hedging became hard:  Robertson couldn't short all tech stocks while going long an equivalent bucket of assets, since there was no such equivalent.  Besides, the momentum in the tech bubble seemed almost unstoppable.  Robertson likened the NASDAQ to a locomotive hurtling down the tracks.  It was certain to come off the rails, but there was no telling when.  Only a foll would stand in front of it.10 

   (More money than god : hedge funds and the making of a new elite / Sebastian Mallaby.,  1. hedge funds., 2. investment advisors.,  HG4530.M249  2010, 332.64'524──dc22, 2010, )
   ____________________________________
1992 broken the Bank of England

Neil Irwin, The Alchemists : three central bankers and a world on fire, 2013

[pp.72-74]
Behind the thick walls of the Bank of England, the traders were fighting a battle.  And they were losing.
     They were buying pounds, with furious speed and on a vast scale.  First 200 million pounds, then another 300 million pounds.  By 8:40 a.m. that morning of Wednesday, September 16, 1992, they were up to 1 billion pounds.  They were trying to prop up the value of their currency on global markets, but no matter how many pounds they bought, the numbers on their screens barely budged.  What they didn't know was that the night before and an ocean away in New York, financier George Soros had given his chief portfolio manager, Stan Druckenmiller, a remarkable order: Sell [British pound] sterling, as much as you can.  And don't stop.
     Druckenmiller had concluded that the British government was no longer going to be able to hold its currency at the level it had pledged to two years earlier under the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.  The idea was that the nations of Europe could boost their economies if their different currencies maintained a steady value relative to the others'.  It would be much easier for a company to do business across Europe, for example, if it could be confident that the deutschmark [German currency] and the franc [French currency] and the lira [Italian currency] wouldn't constantly fluctuate against each other.  When, in one of Margaret Thatcher's final acts as prime minister, Britain joined the exchange rate mechanism [ERM], it committed to keeping the value of a pound sterling at 2.95 deutschmarks, plus or minus 6 percent.
     But Druckenmiller and Soros were convinced that the underlying value of the pound was in fact below that, amid inflation and weak growth in the UK.  They were betting that the currency would inevitably fall to levels that more closely matched its fundamentals, and that the government couldn't afford to keep its value artificially high by entering the market to buy sterling.  Finland and Italy had already dropped out of the exchange rate mechanism under just such pressures, sending their currencies plummeting and making vast sums for anyone who had bet accordingly.  Mervyn King, then the Bank of England's chief economist, had gone to Frankfurt two days earlier, arriving at the Bundesbank amid Wagnerian bursts of thunder and lighting to plead with it for help maintaining the peg, a trip he later called "probably one of the world's most unsuccessful diplomatic missions."  The endgame was coming for Britain.
     The two investors decided to sell sterling "short"--that is, to sell borrowed pounds, which they would repay later, after the pound dropped.  "Go for the jugular," Soros told Druckenmiller that Tuesday night.
     The Quantum Fund, which they ran, sold pounds to anyone who could buy--the Bank of England when the London markets were open, investors around the world the rest of the time.  Soon others started to dump sterling too.  The Bank of England could keep buying, but the more it bought, the more British taxpayers stood to lose if the nation eventually did abandon its currency peg.
     That Wednesday, Prime Minister John Major's government made an emergency decision to hike interest rates a stunning 2 full percentage points, then hiked them by another 3 percentage points on Thursday.  It hoped to reverse the sell-off and leave the speculators with egg on their face, even at the risk of devastating British economic growth.  But Soros and other global investors showed no hesitation.  The selling continued unabated.
     At 7:40 p.m. London time the evening of September 17, Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont stood before the British Treasury.  "Massive speculative flows have continued to disrupt the functioning of the exchange-rate mechanism," he told the assembled cameras.  He had called a meeting of European finance ministers to discuss what to do next.  "In the meantime the Government has decided that British's best interests would be best secured by suspending our membership of the ERM with immediate effect."
     The pound immediately plummeted.  George Soros and Stan Druckenmiller had broken the Bank of England, made a billion dollars for themselves and their investors, and become legends in the world of finance.  But the exit of Britain, Italy and Finland from the exchange rate mechanism meant that if the very different nations of Europe were to create a single unified financial system, in which money could flow as freely between nations as it does among U.S. states, it would take something more binding than a mere promise.
     It would take the euro.

[p.324]
     DEM WAHREN SCHOENEN GUTEN, the inscription on the reconstructioned neo-Renaissance facade reads: "To the true, the beautiful, the good."

     (Irwin, Neil (2013), The Alchemists, the penguin press, new york, 2013 )
(The Alchemists : three central bankers and a world on fire, Neil Irwin, pp.72-74 )
   ____________________________________
- herd mentality
- group think
- band wagon effect
- self-fulfiling prophecy
- feedback loop between:  
  - the situation (reality - the actual situation), 
  - perception of reality (interpretation of the situation), 
    - what you think you know; what you believe to be true; 
  - omission (non-action) and/or commission (action).
  - feedback loop as in interaction
    - the interactions influence the behavior of the participants  
- watering hole 
  - a small pond or the shore of a lake where all the animals go to get the only source of water (drinkable water for animal in the wild, not drinkable for human) 
  - “The Watering Hole is police slang for a location cops go off-duty to blow off steam and talk about work and life.” 
- information asymmetry 
   ____________________________________

George Soros, The new paradigm for financial markets, 2008 

p.xxiv
One cannot escape the conclusion that both the financial authorities and market participants harbor fundamental misconceptions about the way financial markets function. 

p.xxiv
   I shall argue that the global financial system has been built on false premises.  This would be a shocking proposition except for the even more shocking proposition that misconceptions characterize not only financial markets but all human constructs. 

p.xxiv
   In Part 1, I shall lay out the conceptual framework in terms of which the functioning of financial markets can be understood.  In Part 2, I shall apply that framework to the present moment in history. 

p.10
People base their decisions not on the actual situation that confronts them but on their perception or interpretation of that situation.  Their decisions make an impact on the situation (the manipulative function), and changes in the situation are liable to change their perceptions (the cognitive function).  The two functions operate concurrently, not sequentially. 

p.11
They can affect the course of events──the future is influenced by their decisions──but they cannot base their decisions on knowledge.  They are obliged to form a view of the world, but that view cannot possibly correspond to the actual state of affairs.  Whether they recognize it or not, they are obliged to act on the basis of beliefs which are not rooted in reality.  Misinterpretations of reality and other kinds of misconceptions play a much bigger role in determining the course of events than generally recognized.  That is the main new insight that the theory of reflexivity has to offer. 


p.11
I learned at an early age how ideologies based on false premises can transform reality.  I also learned that there are times when the normal rules do not apply, and the abnormal becomes normal. 

p.18
In particular, I could apply my theory of reflexivity to establish a disequilibrium scenario or boom-bust pattern for financial markets.  The rewarding part came when market enter what I called far-from-equilibrium territory because that is when the generally accepted equilibrium models broke down.
pp.18-19
I specialized in detecting and playing far-from-equilibrium situations with good results. 
p.19
This led to my first published book, The Alchemy of Finance (1987), in which I expounded my approach.  I called it alchemy to emphasize that my theory does not meet the currently prevailing requirements of scientific method. 

p.19
I used to suffer from backaches and other psychosomatic ailments, and I received as many useful signals from my backaches as from my theory.  Nevertheless, I attributed great importance to my philosophy and particularly my theory of reflexivity.  Indeed, I considered it so significant, treasured it so much, that I found it difficult to part with it by putting it in writing and publishing it. 

p.19
As I belabored the points, my arguments became more and more covoluted until I reached a point when I could not understand what I had written the night before. 

p.20
At the same time, some readers could look through my faulty rhetoric and appreciate the ideas that lay behind them.  That was particularly true for people engaged in the financial markets, where my demonstrated success led them to look for the reason behind it, and the obscurity of my formulations added to their fascination.  My publisher anticipated this and refrained from editing my manuscript.  He wanted the book to be the subject of a cult.  To this day  The Alchemy of Finance  is read by market participants, taught in business schools, but totally ignored in departments of economics. 

pp.20-21
He quoted my son Robert:

   My father will sit down and give you theories to explain 
   why he does this or that. But I remember seeing it as a 
   kid and thinking, Jesus Christ, at least half of this is bullshit.
   I mean, you know the reason he changes his position
   on the market or whatever is because his back starts
   killing him. It has nothing to do with reason. He literally 
   goes into a spasm, and it's this early warning sign. 
      If you're around him a long time, you realize that to a 
   large extent he is driven by temperament. But he is always
   trying to rationalize what are basically his emotions. 
   And he is living in a constant state of not exactly 
   denial, but rationalization of his emotional state. And it's 
   very funny.* 

*Quoted in Michael Kaufman, Soros: The Life and Times of a Messianic Billionaire (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2002), 140.

p.21
   I harbored grave doubts myself.  Although I took my philosophy very seriously, I was not at all certain that what I had to say deserved to be taken seriously by others.  I knew that it was significant for me subjectively, but I was uncertain about its objective worth for others. 

p.21
The theory of reflexivity deals with a subject──the relationship between thinking and reality──that philosophers had been discussing for ages. 

p.21
I felt obliged to keep on explaining my philosophy because I felt it was not properly understood.  All my books followed the same pattern.  

p.22
I was trying to answer the question, how could the propaganda techniques described in Orwell's 1984 be so successful in contemporary America?  After all, in 1984 Big Brother was watching you; there was a Ministry of Truth and an apparatus of repression to take care of dissidents.  In contemporary America there is freedom of thought and pluralistic media.  Yet the Bush administration managed to mislead the people by using Orwellian Newspeak. 

p.22
Until then I had taken it for granted that Orwellian Newspeak could prevail only in a closed society like Orwell's 1984. 

p.22
His [Karl Popper] argument hinged on the unspoken assumption that political discourse aims at a better understand of reality.  But the concept of reflexivity asserts that there is such a thing as the manipulative (formerly participating) function, and political discourse can be successfully used to manipulate reality. 

   (The new paradigm for financial markets : the credit crisis of 2008 and what it means / George Soros., 1. financial crises──united states., 2. united states──economic policy., 3. united states──economic conditions──21st century., 4. credit──united states., HB3722.S673  2008, 332.0973──dc22, 2008, )  
   ____________________________________
 • the most severe legislation restricting financial speculation of any industrial country of the time.  
 • Futures positions in grain were prohibited.  
 • Stock market speculation possibilities were severely constrained, one result of which has been the relative absence of stock market speculation since then as a major factor affecting German economic life.

William Engdahl, A century of war: Anglo-American oil politics and the new world order, 1992, 2004 

pdf page: 25/314 (filename: Engdahl_Century_of_War_book.pdf) 
pp.14-15
p.14
In 1890, as a result of the near failure of the prestigious London merchant bank, Baring Brothers, arising from their huge losses in Argentine bond speculation and investment, and the ties of German banking to this Argentine speculation, a Berlin bank panic ensured, as the dominoes of an international financial pyramid began to topple. 

p.14
   Berlin, and German investors generally, had been caught up in international railroad speculation mania in the 1880s.  With the crash of the elite Baring Bros., with some $75,000,000 invested in various Argentine bonds, down came the illusions of many Germans about the marvels of financial speculation. 

pp.14-15
   In the wake of the financial collapse of Argentina, a large wheat exporter to Europe, Berlin grain traders Ritter & Blumenthal had foolishly attempted to ‘corner’ on the entire German wheat market, planning to capitalize on the consequences of the financial troubles in Argentina.  This only aggravated the financial panic in Germany as their scheme collapsed, bankrupting in its wake the esteemed private banking house of Hirschfeld & Wolf, and causing huge losses at the Rheinisch-Westphaelische Bank, further triggering a general run on German banks and a collapse of the Berlin stock market, lasting into the autumn of 1891. 

p.15
   Responding to the crisis, the Chancellor named a Commission of Inquiry of 28 eminent persons, under the chairmanship of Reichsbank President Dr. Richard Koch, to look into the causes and to propose legislative measures to prevent further such panics from occurring.  The Koch Commission was composed of a broad and representatives cross-section of German economic society, including representatives from industry, agriculture, universities, political parties, as well as banking and finance. 

p.15
   The result of the commission's work, most of it voted into law by the Reichstag in the Exchange Act in June 1896, and the Depotgesetz of that July, was the most severe legislation restricting financial speculation of any industrial country of the time.  Futures positions in grain were prohibited.  Stock market speculation possibilities were severely constrained, one result of which has been the relative absence of stock market speculation since then as a major factor affecting German economic life.

p.15
   The German Exchange Act of 1896 established definitively a different form of organization of finance and banking in Germany from that of Britain or America──Anglo-Saxon banking.  Not only this, but many London financial houses reduced their activity in the restrictive German financial market after the 1890s as a result of these restrictions, lessening the influence of City of London finance over German economic policy.  Significantly, to the present day, these fundamental differences between Anglo-Saxon banking and finance, and a ‘German model’ as largely practiced in Germany, Holland, Switzerland and Japan, are still somewhat visible.3 

3. Friedrich List. The National System of Political Economy (1885 edition. London: Longman, Green). Reprinted New York: Augustus M. Kelley, 1966.  

William Engdahl, A century of war: Anglo-American oil politics and the new world order, 1992, 2004 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e0PVSremXnuf4Nkn4cY0xW8hF8SaL72-/view

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1eon-LgnO0xBGwNocDzajA8hELTmWS1CR
   ____________________________________
  <---------------------------------------------------------------------------->
--
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in, or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise), without the prior permission of the publisher.  

NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C., section 107, some material is provided without permission from the copyright owner, only for purposes of criticism, comment, scholarship and research under the "fair use" provisions of federal copyright laws. These materials may not be distributed further, except for "fair use," without permission of the copyright owner. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml
   ____________________________________

737 rudder issue

 • March 3, 1991    ── united airline flight 585    ── 737-200 in Colorado Springs in 1991    ── summary: loss of control due to rudder hard...