trail-blazers generally go bankrupt

 Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982

 • the trail-blazers generally go bankrupt, and only those who later buy the buildings, machinery, etc., at a cheaper price, make money out of it

p.107

The possible wisdom of waiting is reinforced by observations, abundantly available to all would-be entrepreneurs, concerning the sad financial fate of innumerable earlier entrepreneurs who ended up in the bankruptcy courts because of their premature entrepreneurial activities.5

p.107

 5  Marx long ago called attention to “the far greater cost of operating an establishment based on a new invention as compared to later establishments arising ex suis ossibus.  This is so very true that the trail-blazers generally go bankrupt, and only those who later buy the buildings, machinery, etc., at a cheaper price, make money out of it” (Karl Marx, Capital [Foreign languages publishing house, moscow, 1959], vol. III, p. 103).

He also called attention to the rapid improvements in the productivity of machinery in its early stages as well as the sharp reduction in the cost of its production.  

“When machine is first introduced into an industry, new methods of reproducing it more cheaply follow blow by blow, and so do improvements, that not only affect individual parts and details on the machine, but its entire build” (Karl Marx, Capital [Modern library edition, new york, no date], vol. I, p. 442). 

In a footnote on that page, Marx cites approvingly Babbage's statement: “It has been estimated, roughly, that the first individual of a newly invented machine will cost about five times as much as the construction of the second.”

For discussion of related problems with respect to the growth of nations, see Ed Ames and Nathan Rosenberg, “Changing technological leadership and economic growth”, Economic journal, march 1963.

  (Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673   1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )

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Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982

 • The rise of maintenance costs during the first year of introduction reflects the impact of early design problems that were not anticipated prior to the rigors of actual on-line operations. 

 • some design problems, such as the lubrication difficulties of the JT3D, are solved under the guise of maintenance, so are maintenance aspects of the future engines carefully examined and prepared for during the design phase. 

p.131

Pratt and Whitney JT3D turbojet engine.21

  21  see NASA document CR-134645, section II, fig. II-1.

p.131

The rise of maintenance costs during the first year of introduction reflects the impact of early design problems that were not anticipated prior to the rigors of actual on-line operations. 

   In the case of the JT3D, the design difficulties remedied through maintenance involved inordinate wearing of parts due to high operating temperatures relative to the thermal stability of the lubricants used.  After this point, maintenance costs dropped sharply, typically to 30 per cent of their initial levels over a decade of operation.  It is the determinants of this cost reduction after the introduction of a new engine that we seek to understand. 

   Just as some design problems, such as the lubrication difficulties of the JT3D, are solved under the guise of maintenance, so are maintenance aspects of the future engines carefully examined and prepared for during the design phase.  This activity includes preparing of instruction manuals and tools for repair, ordering and inventorying spare parts, training personnel, and so on.  These are complementary, although simultaneous, technological advances in the introduction of the new engine.

  (Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673   1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )

   ____________________________________

Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982

  (Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673   1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )

   ____________________________________

Nathan Rosenberg, Inside the black box: technology and economics, 1982

  (Inside the black box./ Nathan Rosenberg, 1. technological innovations., 2. technology─social aspects., HC79.T4R673   1982, 338'.06, first published 1982, )

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